McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk (6/9, likely voters, 3/16 in parens):
Dan Seals (D): 32 (29)
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 53 (50)
(MoE: ±6%)
You can take this with as many grains of salt as you wish, but as it stands now, Seals has room to grow, even according to this poll. His name recognition is 30 points lower than Kirk’s, and it remains to be seen whether Kirk can withstand a vigorous campaign by Seals combined with Obama’s presence at the top of the ballot in this D+3.6 district. Holding on, despite his early lead, will be a formidable task.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
and he is conservative about placing races on the tossup list. More likely it’s a mid to high single digit race. This is obviously one of the more absurd internal polls this cycle.
That is, 53 percent is probably Kirk’s ceiling.
therefore, it is difficult for me to accept the 32% number for June (to say nothing of the 29% number from March). As other commenters have noted, Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket is going to be huge in this suburban Chicago district.
This may be ignorant but how does a candidate who won 47% of the vote last cycle trail in name recognition by 30 points? That seems bizarre to me.